A $398m market cap. $986m of Shanghai-listed Insta360 stock, $230m of net cash, plus an operating business that already clears the market cap on its own.
Thanks for the nudge, Ameet, and it's a fair question. The straight answer: the catalyst I wrote about did not arrive, the position is down around 20%, and I still hold it, though for weaker reasons than when I put it on.
The piece rested on a near-term catalyst, a monetisation or distribution that would start closing the gap to net asset value within a few weeks. At the Q1 results on 28 May management went the other way: no special dividend, the move toward the 45% asset rule described only as "gradual" with no timeline, and roughly RMB 500m spent acquiring Hupu rather than returning cash. The event the trade depended on did not come.
So why still hold? The business is genuinely growing, with revenue up about 54% in the quarter, and the company sits on more net cash than the operating business alone would justify, so there is real value behind the price even with the stake marked lower.
What I am watching: any real step toward returning capital, a buyback or dividend rather than words, the pace of the 45% unwind, and the Arashi mark. If management keeps choosing acquisitions over distributions, the honest move is to take the loss and move on, and I will say so here if it comes to that.
whatever happened with this? the shares have trended lower and lower...
Thanks for the nudge, Ameet, and it's a fair question. The straight answer: the catalyst I wrote about did not arrive, the position is down around 20%, and I still hold it, though for weaker reasons than when I put it on.
The piece rested on a near-term catalyst, a monetisation or distribution that would start closing the gap to net asset value within a few weeks. At the Q1 results on 28 May management went the other way: no special dividend, the move toward the 45% asset rule described only as "gradual" with no timeline, and roughly RMB 500m spent acquiring Hupu rather than returning cash. The event the trade depended on did not come.
So why still hold? The business is genuinely growing, with revenue up about 54% in the quarter, and the company sits on more net cash than the operating business alone would justify, so there is real value behind the price even with the stake marked lower.
What I am watching: any real step toward returning capital, a buyback or dividend rather than words, the pace of the 45% unwind, and the Arashi mark. If management keeps choosing acquisitions over distributions, the honest move is to take the loss and move on, and I will say so here if it comes to that.
thank you for the update, I do appreciate it... this is how things go sometimes, at least there is still value there...